Twang on Billboard
Time to fire up this thread, as Twang makes a re-entry on this week's 10/17/09 Billboard Chart, up at #45.  It had previously debuted for a week back when the album was released, getting airplay as an album cut.  Now, it's been released, and will take its shot at becoming George's 45th #1.  Still a little sore and puzzled at the disappointing #2 peak for LFTN, and I'm not completely convinced that Twang will make up for it.  I'll probably end up predicting a peak at #3 for this single.  Since I predicted #1 for LFTN, and was proven wrong in the bad way for that song, maybe I'll go with a #3 prediction for Twang, and hope I get proven wrong in the good way.  At any rate, we'll keep an eye on Mediabase, for the song's first appearance there, and hopefully have some data to work with on Thursday for a full-fledged projection for next week.  I would think he'd have an easy time vaulting from #45 into the top 30, but we'll see.&#...
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Time to fire up this thread, as Twang makes a re-entry on this week's 10/17/09 Billboard Chart, up at #45.  It had previously debuted for a week back when the album was released, getting airplay as an album cut.  Now, it's been released, and will take its shot at becoming George's 45th #1. 

Still a little sore and puzzled at the disappointing #2 peak for LFTN, and I'm not completely convinced that Twang will make up for it.  I'll probably end up predicting a peak at #3 for this single.  Since I predicted #1 for LFTN, and was proven wrong in the bad way for that song, maybe I'll go with a #3 prediction for Twang, and hope I get proven wrong in the good way. 

At any rate, we'll keep an eye on Mediabase, for the song's first appearance there, and hopefully have some data to work with on Thursday for a full-fledged projection for next week.  I would think he'd have an easy time vaulting from #45 into the top 30, but we'll see. 

 
 
 
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  • chipslovescm chipslovescm commented | 1 day ago
     
    Still #17 on mediabase this morning. We have to keep requesting and voting - George can't do it on his own - there is too much competition out there.
     
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  • Jon_Solo Jon_Solo commented | 2 days ago
     
    Yes, George did have a good overnight gain on MB, and now projects to staying in front of Rascal Flatts and keep his #17 position. Still lagging behind the pace that Owen is setting, and the deficit should grow from 0.08 mill to probably ten times that.
     
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  • 6bluesky 6bluesky commented | 2 days ago
     
    Small rebound this morning.. Lets pray it continues.
     
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  • chipslovescm chipslovescm commented | 2 days ago
     
    We need to keep requesting - please vote when possible as well.
     
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  • razorback9926 razorback9926 commented | 2 days ago
     
    I can't help but hark back to a posting by Jon Solo during the Troubadour thread. He predicted (correctly) that the song would run into trouble since it wasn't about love or god or children. Neither is Twang. I still have hope the song will catapult once again, but it sure is stalled at 17 mil.
     
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  • 6bluesky 6bluesky commented | 2 days ago
     
    One song faltering does not put him in the grave.. geezzzz. If that were the case there is not one major artist that would still be around.
     
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  • james2008 james2008 commented | 2 days ago
     
    I sure hope not. Remember, Eddy Arnold was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1966 and continued to rack up top ten hits throughout the next fourteen years. George Strait was inducted in 2006. Fourteen years later would be 2020 and hopefully, he will have top tens that year (the 40th anniversary of him signing with MCA Records).
     
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  • jkm35180 jkm35180 commented | 2 days ago
     
    I'm a hopelessly pessimistic person. I can't help but feel that the ARTIST OF THE DECADE and Hall of Fame induction are the industry's way of telling George to move on.

    Sure hope Twang rebounds and proves me wrong though.
     
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  • Jon_Solo Jon_Solo commented | 2 days ago
     
    Okay, time to check in with George, on this week's Billboard chart. Paisley and Urban both went recurrent, and George scooted ahead of Martina and the Flatts. But Jake Owen edged past George by a tiny 8,000 listeners. So Twang settled for a move from #20 to #17:

    Date of Billboard Chart - projected chart run guess on 10/6/09 - chart prediction from previous week - actual chart position

    10/17/09 - XX - XX - 45

    10/24/09 - 32 - 34 - 34

    10/31/09 - 29 - 29 - 30

    11/7/09 - 24 - 26 - 24

    11/14/09 - 21 - 22 - 22

    11/21/09 - 19 - 20 - 20

    11/28/09 - 16 - 16 - 17

    12/5/09 - 15 - ?? - ??

    12/12/09 - 10 - ?? - ??

    12/19/09 - 8 - ?? - ??

    12/26/09 - 7 - ?? - ??

    1/2/10 - 5 - ?? - ??

    1/9/10 - 4 - ?? - ??

    1/16/10 - 4 - ?? - ??

    1/23/10 - 3 - ?? - ??

    1/30/10 - 3 - ?? - ??

    2/6/10 - 8 - ?? - ??

    2/13/10 - 13 - ?? - ??

    2/20/10 - recurrent - ?? - ??

    And here's the chart around George:

    14. Adkins - 16.646 - down 0.148
    15. Aldean - 16.302 - up 1.934
    16. Owen - 15.055 - up 1.826
    17. Strait - 15.047 - up 1.432
    18. Martina - 14.236 - up 0.372
    19. Flatts - 14.106 - up 0.051
    20. Turner - 12.881 - up 1.736

    As you can probably guess, with my inclusion of so many songs behind George, it doesn't appear he's having a good week...

    After three days on Mediabase, George is up 0.182 mill, a strangely minuscule amount. That would put him on pace to only gain 0.38 mill for the week on Billboard. I'll say he at least manages 0.5, and would like to see the slow week is just a hiccup, but will have to wait to be sure. River Of Love had a slow week or two last year when it was in the #15 to #18 portion, but that happened later, when we were in December, and it could more easily be chalked up to holiday music distracting everybody. A 0.5 move up would put him at 15.6.

    No recurrents from up above, as Zac Brown shouldn't quite lose enough spins to send him down to an 11th place total.

    Adkins did have a small loss on the last chart, but is up 0.47 mill so far this week, which means he'll be recovered in his 29th week on the chart, gain 1 mill, and reach 17.6.

    Aldean is already thinking about hitting the top in late January, up 0.9 mill on MB. A 2 mill gain puts him at 18.2.

    Owen is following up his two straight great weeks, with another strong one, up 0.878 mill. Give him a 1.7 mill gain, and George will have to wait to re-pass him. He'll be at 16.7.

    Hmmm... So that doesn't look like there's any room to move up the chart for George. Okay. Now let's look behind him.

    Martina is down 0.38 mill, and headed to recurrency. At least she's not a threat to pass George.

    The Flatts are up 0.9 mill, shaking off that flat week, and might get a 1.85 mill gain next week. That would put them at 15.9, which would leapfrog them back over George. As bad as that would be, it at least shows that they were able to recover from their tiny 0.05 mill gain, to get a big jump the following week. Maybe George will have the same luck, and drastically improve next week on his projected 0.5 mill gain.

    Finally, Turner is up 1.37 mill, shaking him out of his slumber. I can't go too crazy, and will give him a 2.6 mill gain. That would move him up to 15.5. That will be just below George, and I will try to have some confidence that George can keep from being passed by two artists.

    So no choice but to go with a one notch drop on next week's chart, from #17 to #18. And my goal of having George in the top 10 before the last chart of the year takes a big hit. I don't want to draw any conclusions on what this means for Twang's future, but I can't lie and say that it's good. Guess we'll have to hope for the best.
     
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  • 6bluesky 6bluesky commented | 3 days ago
     
    I'm beginning to think this song will be lucky to reach top ten. I heard it played here for a few days and now, nothing... Media Base is disaster this morning.
     
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  • chipslovescm chipslovescm commented | 4 days ago
     
    Up to #19 on mediabase - but the new Brad Paisley song could overtake soon - so please continue to request and vote - "Twang" is on the waxx poll again (click on Alex to go to Alex's page to vote - poll is on right-hand side).
     
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  • 6bluesky 6bluesky commented | 4 days ago
     
    Seventeen is not too darn shabby... Hope you're right about next weeks numbers.... I see that the powers that be have decided to let Aldean have his head.... I think its a good idea.
     
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  • Jon_Solo Jon_Solo commented | 5 days ago
     
    Well, it did end up very close between George and Jake Owen, only Twang came up on the wrong end. Owen had 15.055 mill in audience, afer a 1.826 mill gain to claim #16, and George fell just short, 15.047 on a 1.432 gain, to "settle" for a move from #20 to #17. So only 8000 estimated listeners, or just about one extra spin at an average sizeradio station, was the difference.

    Doesn't matter in the long run, as George should edge back in front almost immediately, and could be looking at #15 next week if Toes goes recurrent. We'll see on Thursday.
     
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  • Jon_Solo Jon_Solo commented | 6 days ago
     
    Not too bad of a week for George on Mediabsae, with a 1.58 mill gain, which should still be enough to get him up from #20 on #16 on this week's Billboard chart. Urban and Paisley definitely did enough to drop out of the top ten, so they should go recurrent. And Martina and Rascal led George by 0.294 and 0.473 mill, but only gained 0.7 and 0.26 mill each, so that George should have been able to move past both.

    And on the Owen issue, he was behind George by 0.380 mill on last week's Billboard, and gained 1.798 mill on Mediabase. Compared to George's 1.58, that means Jake should have shaved off about 0.2 mill off of George's lead, maybe 0.3. It could be very close, but I expect George to stay just in front of Jake this week. We'll find out tonight.
     
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  • chipslovescm chipslovescm commented | 6 days ago
     
    Please keep voting and requesting - "Twang" is still #20 on mediabase this morning.
     
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  • razorback9926 razorback9926 commented | 6 days ago
     
    Don't forget, Mediabase ranks them by spins, not audience like Billboard does. So even though Twang was showing #20 on Mediabase today, it was also showing more audience than 2 songs above it: Flatts and McBride. Mediabase has now de-listed Zac Brown Band, but that's wrong, it will still be on Billboard. I think Keith and Brad will go recurrent, so George would have gained 4 spots, except Jake Owen re-passed him. George cut the 700K deficit down to 400K today, it's possible he could still beat out Owen this week, but if not, I'm betting next week he leaves Owen in the dust for good.
     
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  • chipslovescm chipslovescm commented | 7 days ago
     
    "Twang" is still #20 on mediabase this morning - it is #18 on the All About Country chart for the week - please keep requesting and voting for it.
     
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  • razorback9926 razorback9926 commented | 8 days ago
     
    I have George moving 20-17 this week, he's 700K behind Jake Owen, who will leapfrog George again and jump 21-16. I'm not too worried about Owen though, his song has been on the chart 23 weeks already and should lose steam first.
     
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  • chipslovescm chipslovescm commented | 8 days ago
     
    Looking forward to seeing "Twang" go up the charts to #1!! Please keep requesting and voting for it!!!
     
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  • 6bluesky 6bluesky commented | 9 days ago
     
    Fantastic Jon... Thanks so much... Number 16 sounds awesome... I hope last nights performance gives the album a nice boost too...
     
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